How do the young arms factor in to the Reds' long-term plans?
No one expected the Cincinnati Reds to push for a playoff spot in 2022. After trading away talented veterans, it was clear the Reds would be going through growing pains for the next several seasons. Rebuilding teams have two main focuses: development and direction.
The first focus (development) has been on display with Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo (when healthy), and Graham Ashcraft, who are now fixtures in the rotation.
Direction is always a bit tricky. A team without a plan will certainly fail. If we work off the assumption that 2024 is the first year trending in the right direction, a major question needs to be answered: do you keep or trade Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle?
Before answering that question, let’s get a better understanding of where the rotation currently stands, what the organizational depth looks like, and which prospects could factor into the decision to move on from two established pieces.
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Rookies with Upside
2022 Stats: 60 IP, 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 79 SO
A consensus top-25 prospect, Hunter Greene has already flashed dominance at times through his first 12 starts. Greene has already gone seven innings surrendering one or fewer hits twice this season. He’s striking out 30% of batters with the walk numbers trending in the right direction. His reputation is built off the fastball, which ranks in the 99th percentile in velocity. While his 5.10 ERA looks ugly, a 3.62 xERA shows signs of an inevitable drop. For a rookie learning on the fly, Greene has impressed so far.
Greene has plenty of learning and adjustments to make. and he’s far from a finished product. His slider usage has increased to 43% while holding batters to a .105 batting average against it. Being able to trust the slider and work off the fastball with it will be the key to Greene’s long term success.
The Reds know that Greene is a special talent; he has the talent to develop into an ace for this ball club. No question he will be part of the Reds future rotation, likely near the top. The only concern will be the home run ball in Great American Ball Park.
2022 Stats: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 19 SO
The lanky lefty is currently on the injured list (back) after making only three starts in Cincinnati. Since coming to the organization in 2019 as the first pitcher taken in the draft, Lodolo has not logged many innings. When he is pitching, however, expect strikeouts and plus command. Three starts is a tiny sample size, but we saw a pitcher developing rapidly. After his first start, Lodolo became more comfortable attacking the zone more and trusted his pitches to get batters out.
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Lodolo relies more on movement than velocity. As you can see from the graphic above, Lodolo’s horizontal movement on his sinker and changeup are elite. We often talk about a pitchers ceiling and rarely mention their floor. Lodolo has a high floor and profiles as a “3” at the minimum. While I am bullish on Lodolo, the lack of innings makes me question how soon he can help anchor a rotation. Getting healthy and gaining big league experience is priory number one in 2022.
2022 Stats: 28.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 15 SO
Graham Ashcraft has a beautifully bizarre profile. Elite velocity (95th percentile) but pitches to contact instead of striking out batters. The movement of his cutter , which has been described as a “gyro”, allows Ashcraft to miss barrels and drive balls into the ground. Through his first few starts, batters are only barreling 3.2% of balls with an average launch angle of -0.9 degrees. A 58.5% ground ball rate will play well in Great American Ball Park.
While Ashcraft was not in the same prospect discussion as Greene and Lodolo, his upside is still a top-half-of-the-rotation arm. Throwing a 100 mile-per-hour cutter followed by an 85 mile-per-hour slider with crazy movement gives you reason to believe Ashcraft will stick in the majors.
Back of Rotation/Depth
Connor Overton – 24.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10 SO
Mike Minor– 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13 SO
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Vladimir Gutierrez– 36.2 IP, 7.61 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 29 SO
Justin Dunn – N/A (Injury)
Connor Overton, a 28-year-old rookie, provided one of the better stories of the 2022 Reds season. A then no-name made four starts for Cincinnati, quickly inserting himself into full-time consideration. Sadly, a back injury has shelved him for the foreseeable future. While Overton is a fun story, he likely profiles as Triple-A depth.
Mike Minor is on a one-year deal and might not make it through this season with the Reds. Gutierrez had his moments in 2021, but 2022 has been a different story. At 26 years old and under team control, Gutierrez will provide depth or possibly an arm out of the bullpen in the future.
The most intriguing name on the list is Justin Dunn. Once a top prospect, Dunn came to Cincinnati via the Seattle deal this past offseason. Dunn has appeared in parts of the past three seasons pitching to the tune of a 3.94 ERA. Dunn is not a top of the rotation pitcher, however, a fifth starter or depth is still needed. Hopefully Dunn comes back healthy and can challenge the other names on this list moving forward.
Full breakdown of Just Baseball’s top 10 prospects in the Reds System.
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Andrew Abbot (AA) – 31 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 39 SO
Brandon Williamson (AA) – 57.2 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 60 SO
Bryce Bonnin (High A) -25 IP, 2.52 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 28 SO
Joe Boyle (High A) – 42.2 IP, 0.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 65 SO
Connor Phillips (High A) – 54 IP, 3.17 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 78 SO
Chase Petty (Low A) – 37 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 38 SO
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Fans of rebuild teams love to talk prospects. A glimpse into the future and what the team can be is usually more interesting than the product on the field. Luckily, the Reds have several talented arms. Williamson checks in at #54 on Just Baseballs Top 100, while Abbott, Phillips, and Petty also have top-100 upside. Phillips, better known as the PTBNL in the Seattle trade, has potential to rise up prospect list. His movement looks looks like it will play at any level, but walks have been a major concern.
Of course, not all prospects will pan out. Abbott and Williamson are the closest to the big leagues and likely appear within the next year. If you are the Reds, you are happy if one or two eventually become legit contributors.
What to do with Castillo and Mahle?
Luis Castillo – 3.33 ERA, 1.87 WHIP (Free Agent After 2023)
Tyler Mahle – 4.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP (Free Agent After 2023)
Now that we have painted a picture of the organizations options going forward, it’s time for the big question: what should the Reds do with Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle?
Cincinnati does not typically give out big deals to starting pitchers. Homer Bailey’s six year deal worth 105 million dollars was the last big deal for a starter, and it was a complete disaster. A small market team like Cincinati cannot afford to miss on sizable contracts. Castillo and Mahle have the track record that will lead them to multi-year deals with substantial pay increases. A rebuilding team does not usually lock up a pitcher over 30 years old (Castillo) for several years.
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The time to move Castillo is now. Cincinnati botched their last rebuild and cannot repeat this time around. With team control for 2022, Castillo is more than a rental, which will drive up his price. A return of two top prospects and perhaps a young MLB-ready piece would do wonders for this organization.
Mahle is a couple years younger and will hit free agency at 29 years old. A case can be made for an extension, as the Reds will need a veteran in the rotation. Mahle would likely command several years, and I think the Reds will explore other veteran options. The glaring issue with Mahle are his home versus road splits. In 51 career starts at Great American Ball Park, his ERA sits at 5.08 compared to his 3.73 road ERA. Big money and length to a pitcher who struggles in the team’s home ball park seems risky for the Reds.
Moving Mahle would also fetch a nice return. The Reds have a strong farm, and adding to it is always a good idea. Get more talent and play the percentages of who will turn out. With plenty of holes to fill, you need to capitalize on these two pitchers value and team control. Signing a veteran to fill out the rotation after gaining a better understanding on the current prospects is much easier than navigating long term deals. Fans will not like moving two established pitchers, but this rebuild cannot afford expensive mistakes.
The Cincinnati Reds, despite their struggles, remain an integral part of MLB history. Even as baseball becomes more obsessed with increasing revenue and reducing spending, an iconic franchise won't be relocated.Who will play 3rd base for the Reds? ›
|Spencer Steer 12 B/T: R/R Ht: 5' 11" Wt: 185 DOB: 12/07/1997||R/R||5' 11"|
|Mike Moustakas 9 B/T: L/R Ht: 6' 0" Wt: 225 DOB: 09/11/1988||L/R||6' 0"|
|Matt Reynolds 4 B/T: R/R Ht: 6' 1" Wt: 200 DOB: 12/03/1990||R/R||6' 1"|
|Alejo Lopez 35 B/T: S/R Ht: 5' 10" Wt: 170 DOB: 05/05/1996||S/R||5' 10"|
Cincinnati Reds Transactions 2022.
|July 23, 2022||Placed C Tyler Stephenson on the 10-day IL. Recalled C Mark Kolozsvary from Louisville (IL).|
- Portland. ...
- Las Vegas. ...
- Charlotte. Charlotte is an MLB expansion candidate and is unique as the only American city to have an NFL, NBA and an MLS teams, but no MLB franchise. ...
- Montreal. Since 2005 the Blue Jays have been the only Canadian MLB team. ...
Revenue of the Cincinnati Reds (MLB) from 2001 to 2021 (in million U.S. dollars)
|Characteristic||Revenue in million U.S. dollars|
New York Yankees. The Yankees–Red Sox rivalry is one of the oldest, most famous and fiercest rivalries in American sports.Who is the Reds number 1 prospect? ›
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Cincinnati Reds selected the contract of SS Elly De La Cruz from Chattanooga Lookouts. Cincinnati Reds signed free agent RHP Kevin Herget to a minor league contract. Texas Rangers traded 2B Nick Solak to Cincinnati Reds for cash.Who did Reds get for Drury? ›
A little more than four months after infielder Brandon Drury signed with the Cincinnati Reds on a minor league contract, he was traded to the San Diego Padres on Tuesday for 18-year-old shortstop prospect Victor Acosta, sources confirmed to The Enquirer. Drury had a breakout 2022 season with a . 274 batting average, .
Louisville Bats (Triple-A)How old is Nick Lodolo? ›
Nicholas Frank Lodolo (/loʊˈdoʊloʊ/ loh-DOH-loh; born February 5, 1998) is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds of Major League Baseball (MLB). He made his MLB debut in 2022.What is Hunter Greene salary? ›
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Hunter Green (@1hunna_g) • Instagram photos and videos.Is MLB losing popularity? ›
MLB 2022 regular season attendance dropped 5.7 percent from 2019 campaign. Concerns about the MLB's waning popularity will only increase with the release of the league's attendance numbers for the 2022 season.What city needs an MLB team? ›
- Cities That Should Have an MLB Team. Major League Baseball has resisted the urge to expand since adding teams in Tampa Bay and Arizona in 1998. ...
- Montreal. ...
- Havana. ...
- Portland, Oregon. ...
- Charlotte, North Carolina. ...
- Nashville, Tennessee. ...
- Las Vegas. ...
- Sacramento, California.
San Antonio ranks as the largest city in the United States without a major league team—by almost 500,000 people.What percent of the Reds does Castellini own? ›
To put that in perspective, it's been rumored that Bob Castellini owns just 15% of the Cincinnati Reds – he just owns the largest chunk of any individual and has the controlling share (which would mean even if someone else wound up with a larger share of ownership by buying out minority partners he would remain the CEO ...What is the most profitable baseball team? ›
|Team||Los Angeles Angels|
Fifteen years of ownership and they haven't won to the extent that we would like. So, you had my faith, but you've lost it. ' Why should that fan maintain trust?” “Well, where are you gonna go?” Castellini said, his comments dripping with contempt for the average Reds fan who might dare question him.
What is the oldest MLB rivalry? The oldest MLB rivalry is the rivalry between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants, which began in the late 1880s when they faced off in the 1889 World Series. Both teams were originally from New York and later moved to the West Coast, though their rivalry persisted.What is the biggest NHL rivalry? ›
The biggest rivalry in the NHL is undoubtedly between the Boston Bruins and the Montreal Canadiens. In addition to playing in more games against each other than any other pair in the league, the opposing cities are defined by their loyalty to their teams.Are the Cincinnati Reds the oldest team in baseball? ›
The Cincinnati Red Stockings made their mark as the first openly professional baseball club in 1869. Members of the team would go on to form a club that still plays ball today, the Atlanta Braves.Who is the number 1 MLB Prospect 2022? ›
As for the Cincinnati Reds they are represented by three players on the list. At the very top for the Reds organization is Elly De La Cruz, coming in at #21 overall. He's followed closely by Nick Lodolo at #23.Who is the best red of all time? ›
1: Pete Rose. Is there any doubt that Pete Rose is the best player in Reds' history? The man is the all-time hit king (4256) and also leads all players in games played (3562), plate appearances (15890) and at-bats (14053).What is America's least favorite baseball team? ›
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been voted the most hated baseball team in the United States of America.Why is baseball no longer America's favorite sport? ›
The rise of TV
The sports landscape has changed dramatically from 62 years ago. One big reason baseball no longer finds itself the darling of American sports is competition and the dawn of the television age.
The most common ethnicity among professional baseball players is White, which makes up 78.0% of all professional baseball players. Comparatively, there are 7.2% of the Hispanic or Latino ethnicity and 6.8% of the Black or African American ethnicity.Who has the best batting average on the Reds? ›
The Padres also acquired 20-homer man Brandon Drury from the Cincinnati Reds for shortstop prospect Victor Acosta, the teams announced. Drury, 29, was enjoying a breakout season with the Reds, slashing . 274/.What family owns Drury? ›
Drury Hotels, which also owns Pear Tree Inns, now is led by Mr. Drury's son, Chuck Drury, who is its president and chief executive officer. Drury Hotels remains entirely owned by the Drury family.Why was Josh Hader traded? ›
Trading him had some to do with his contract status; Hader signed a $11 million arbitration deal for the season and was headed to his final year in arbitration next season. For the Brewers, this was a chance to avoid going to arbitration again or working out a potential extension.How much are Drury points worth? ›
Drury Rewards points are worth 1 cent each on average, according to WalletHub's research. The average Drury Rewards point value is almost the same for both weekday and weekend reservations.Is AAA lower than AA in MLB? ›
AAA or triple A is the highest MiLB level, and where players are most likely to be called up to the parent Major League team. AA or double A. Class A advanced or “High A” Class A, or “Low A”Are the Rainiers Triple-A? ›
The Tacoma Rainiers are the Triple-A affiliate of the Seattle Mariners and the 2021 Triple-A West Champions. Here you can find information on Cheney Stadium, Rainiers world-famous merchandise, and ticket information.What is a AAA baseball player? ›
Triple-A (officially Class AAA) has been the highest level of play in Minor League Baseball in the United States since 1946. Currently, two leagues operate at the Triple-A level, the International League (IL) and the Pacific Coast League (PCL).How tall is Lodolo? › Where is Nick Lodolo from? ›
Graduated from Damien High School in La Verne, CA, the same school attended by Mark McGwire, rock guitarist Buckethead and former Reds pitcher Frank Pastore...as a junior at Texas Christian University in 2019 was named second team All-American and first team All-Big 12...in 16 starts for the Horned Frogs that year ...
|Runs batted in||93|
|Texas Rangers (2019–present)|
It's generally thought that Joe Maddon, Mike Scioscia, and Bruce Bochy make the most, at $5 million each. Joe Girardi, Buck Showalter, and Don Mattingly follow at $4 million, $3.5 million and $2.5 million. The lowest-paid MLB manager probably makes around $750,000, but it's hard to know for sure.
Best Covid-19 Travel Insurance Plans. The Dodgers' Dave Roberts ($6.5 million) is reported to be the highest paid manager, followed by Guardians' Terry Francona ($4.2 million), the Padres' Bob Melvin ($4 million) are now the Mets' Buck Showalter ($3.5 million).What does hunter green look like? ›
Hunter green is a dark yellowish-green with the hex code #355E3B, made with equal parts cyan, yellow, and black in the CMYK color model. English hunters wore the color for camouflage in the 19th century until olive drab took precedence.Are forest green and hunter green the same? ›
Hunter green tends to be darker and warmer toned than forest green. Often forest green can have a slight blue undertone, and hunter green leans more towards the deep green colors on camo (like a hunter would wear).Is hunter green and emerald green the same? ›
Hunter Green is generally used to label a very deep and dark true green. There is a lot of overlap between emerald green and hunter green, though Hunter Green is usually darker and more muted than Emerald green. Hunter green sometimes has a slight warm tone to it, while others are more true green.Are the Cincinnati Reds being sold? ›
The team is not being shopped. (Selling the team) is not being contemplated,” Phil Castellini, the Reds president and chief operating officer, told The Enquirer of his father's future plans before the Reds open the 2022 season Thursday in Atlanta.Is a baseball team moving to Las Vegas? ›
Not so fast. After MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told Sirius XM Radio that a long-sought new ballpark in Oakland “doesn't look like it's going to happen,” he told The Times that the A's moving to Las Vegas is neither imminent nor guaranteed.Where are the Cleveland Indians moving? ›
CLEVELAND (AP) — Soon to be known as Guardians, the Indians aren't leaving home anytime soon. Ending rampant speculation they would be relocating, the Indians agreed Thursday to a 15-year lease extension at Progressive Field, keeping them at their downtown ballpark through 2036 and perhaps longer.
Today the Braves announced they will leave Atlanta proper – and move twelve miles up the freeway to Cobb County, hosting opening day 2017 in a brand new ballpark.How much would it cost to buy Cincinnati Reds? ›
Cincinnati Reds franchise value from 2002 to 2022 (in million U.S. dollars)
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MLB Attendance For 2022 Down Nearly 6% From 2019, Last Year Before The Pandemic.Is Cleveland growing or shrinking? ›
The current metro area population of Cleveland in 2022 is 1,761,000, a 0.06% increase from 2021. The metro area population of Cleveland in 2021 was 1,760,000, a 0.17% decline from 2020.What's the nicest neighborhood in Cleveland? ›
- Little Italy.
- Ohio City.
- Old Brooklyn.
- Shaker Square.
- Slavic Village.
- South Collinwood.
- Waterloo Arts District/North Collinwood.
While Columbus was one of 14 cities showing explosive growth, Cleveland is still shrinking. The city lost about 24,000 residents in the last decade from 396,815 people in 2010 -- to 372,624 in 2020. The result will have Cleveland City Council go from 17 to 15 seats in 2025.Are the Braves getting rid of the chop? ›
There is no indication the Braves plan to change their name or discourage the chop, which has been a tradition for their fans since the early 1990s. Former Braves outfielder Deion Sanders is credited with bringing the chop, which was part of his college football background at Florida State, to Atlanta.Who is favored Dodgers or Atlanta? ›
Los Angeles is the -115 money line favorite (risk $115 to win $100) in the latest Dodgers vs. Braves odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while Atlanta is a -105 underdog.Where are the most Braves fans? ›
The Braves dominate the Southeastern United States, controlling most or all of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, along with significant chunks of Tennessee, North Carolina, and Florida.